Late June – 2020

Large Cap vs. Small Cap

market-reflection

 

In “ordinary” times, large and small cap stocks have historically performed similarly with a relatively high correlation of 0.89 out of 1.001. However, in times of severe market swings, small caps tend to underperform based on the inherent risk associated with investing in smaller corporations. This year has been anything but ordinary in the stock market and has amplified a divergence in performance between large caps and small caps.

Year-to-date as of 6/19/20:

  • Large cap stocks, represented by IVV, are down 3.2%
  • Small cap stocks, represented by IWM, are down 14.4%

Looking back to early 2017 when small caps began underperforming large caps,

  • Large cap stocks are up 47.8% from 1/1/17 to 6/19/20
  • Small cap stocks are up 9.5% from 1/1/17 to 6/19/20

Performance of large and small cap stocks over a ten-year period can be seen in the graph below.

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Furthermore, the large and small cap indexes are allocated differently to the 11 sectors which can cause dislocations and divergences in performance over time. For example, the Information Technology sector has outperformed the other sectors year-to-date and the large cap index has over 11% more weight in the IT sector than the small cap index. The small cap index has a greater allocation to economically sensitive sectors such as Financials, Industrials, and Real Estate, whereas the large cap index has a greater weight to Communication and Information Technology, which are economically sensitive but to a lesser degree. The chart below illustrates the 11 sector weightings for the large and small cap index.

market-reflection

Additionally, large cap stock’s revenue tends to have greater global diversification. The pie chart2 below illustrates the large cap index revenue by region from 2018; large cap stocks still receive a majority of their sales from the U.S. but is only 57% of the total mix2. On the other hand, small cap stocks receive roughly 77%3 of their sales from the U.S.

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Lastly, as history suggests, small cap stocks tend to fall harder than large cap stocks in recession but they also benefit the most as the economy emerges from the downturn. As the US economy continues its reopening efforts, small cap valuations are attractive and may be well positioned to outperform large cap peers. At Gradient, we are actively examining this divergence and adjusting positioning to potentially benefit from a rebound in small cap stocks. This is currently most relevant in our ETF-Endowment Series portfolio. In closing, divergence between asset segments happen periodically, but it is important to assess the underlying causes for these changes and determine whether the divergence is structural or temporary.

market-reflection

1. Correlations between IWM and IVV from 6/2000 to 6/2020
2. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations
3. https://us.spindices.com/indexology/djia-and-sp-500/sp-500-global- sales#:~:text=S%26P%20500%20Global%20Sales,-BY%20Howard%20Silverblatt&text=In%202018%2C%20the%20perc entage%20of,43.62%25%20and%202016’s%2043.16%25.
4. https://www.morningstar.com/articles/918437/your-us-equity-fund-is-more-global-than-you-think

 

Advisory Services offered through Cooper Financial Investments, LLC. Insurance services offered through Cooper Financial Group, LLC, an affiliated company. Cooper Financial Investments, LLC and Cooper Financial Group, LLC are not engaged in the practice of law. All written content is for information purposes only. It is not intended to provide any tax or legal advice or provide the basis for any financial decisions. The information contained herein is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy the securities, products or services mentioned, and no offers or sales will be made in jurisdictions in which the offer or sale of these securities, products or services is not qualified or otherwise exempt from regulation. The information contained in this material have been derived from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed as to accuracy and completeness and does not purport to be a complete analysis of the materials discussed.

Whenever you invest, you are at risk of loss of principal as the market does fluctuate. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Purchases are subject to suitability. This requires a review of an investor’s objective, risk tolerance, and time horizons. Investing always involves risk and possible loss of capital. Cooper Financial Investments, LLC is not affiliated with Gradient Investments, LLC.

Past Reflections